International relations & politics can be hard. So we’re going to lay out Ukraine rather simply. Because this one actually isn’t that hard despite all the hype, world leader conferences, and mass hysteria. It’s been a while since we’ve covered this topic, so let’s have at it again!
1) Vlad remains an unhinged freak genius lunatic who’s decided to gamble it all. Russia’s economy has collapsed faster than a Moscow Metro drunk. Vlad’s exposed his regime as a full-fledged corrupt dictatorship that makes even loons like Belarus’ Alexander Lukashenko wary of him. And Vlad doesn’t care. He’s all in.
2) Europe and the United States do not care. They claim they do, every day, but they’re lying. For better or worse, they simply don’t believe Ukraine’s status is of vital interest to the future of the West. They’re wrong, but this is what they think. And so they keep pushing for a diplomatic solution that isn’t there, because it’s all they’ve got.
3) Vlad will talk, talk, talk but in the end he has no reason to cut a deal with anybody. He’s prepared to use deadly force against Ukraine. The West can’t even be bothered to provide enough cash to keep Ukraine from going bankrupt, let alone hand over weapons, legitimate tangible support, etc.
4) Doomsday options like the West arming Ukraine or kicking Russia out of the SWIFT Banking Network aren’t going to happen. Nor are more meaningful sanctions against Russia. You’ve even got Euro-trash countries arguing that Russian sanctions should be lessened. And in any case, with oil now at like $3.48 a barrel, Russia’s is doomed anyways and that still hasn’t changed Vlad’s mind.
So what happens? Well, the answer is easy based on the above facts. Whatever happens is what Vlad says will happen. It’s that simple. Make me an ambassador. Give me the jet and well-stocked bar.
“Well Angela, François, I find your proposal rather intriguing. Unfortunately, however, I think I’m just going to have to ask you both to go fuck yourself. Yes, please go fuck yourselves. Maybe I’ll take Kiev next week, maybe not. Who knows? Who cares? You’re fucked. Want a drink?”