First off, yes, this is an old man yelling at cloud moment.

I am no longer a young man, my joints remind of this every day. But also, I have the personality of a guy who wishes he lived in 385 AD (yes, AD, fuck BCE and CE). This is of course absurd, but it’s the way I think. So here we go folks, on the future of cars. Please hold your applause. The brilliance on this blog is unspeakable. You know nothing. We know everything.

1) For decades, Western car companies got into the Chinese market as their core market (see VW). They did it for short term quarterly profits over long term vision. They signed their own death warrant, and now they want their governments to bail them out. Sorry guys, it’s if you were a mob boss, handed a loaded firearm to a teenager who you didn’t think would ever displace you. And you got shot in the head. You own this. It’s not up to society to make up for your shitty executive decisions and the unions who played along so as the checks kept coming in. Everyone is unhappy, well, … look in the mirror. They did this to themselves.

2) China did the same thing that Africa has done with mobile networks. You get to skip a generation. China never had a true domestic car champion using gas engines. They don’t have to change barrels on the fly like VW. They can start from scratch, see BYD. It’s like all the African mobile networks who haven’t laid a single kilometer of hard wire, they just did mobile from the top and it’s worked.

3) The 187 year old man in me doesn’t understand eternal and invasive software on cars. Or anything else. I bought my last car off the fact that it didn’t have a screen. But, I am already in the minority. The younger folks look at cars as an extension of square screens. The more integrated the car is, with oh so many different screens and options, the better. This is where VW failed, and where I fully admit I’m behind the times. A simple gas car ain’t gonna work anymore. People buy the car off it’s software first.

4) The most expensive part of an EV car is the battery. No gifts for the answer of who builds the vast majority of those batteries. See (1). To quote some guy, in a good movie, a long time ago: You will pay the price for your lack of vision. China owns rare earths and batteries because they had vision. Whereas most other countries were counting their money and were certain it would all remain the same. Sorry folks, it’s over.

5) China success’s in EVs is not because their country is so big. Everyone thinks China is so massive. In terms of population, yes. But most of that population is in like 1/3 of the overall territory. It makes sense then that long distance driving is not necessary. So why not EV. These aren’t folks driving to Tibet for a holiday. That’s what the bullet train is for.

6) The biggest mistake Western governments made with EV introduction was to ask that the cars come first and then the chargers would follow. Ever have that low gas light come on in your car? It’s not like somebody is jamming a dagger into your spine, but it’s an instantaneously thought to you. There is an inherent fear that your method of transportation is failing you. They should have built like 1M chargers first, then the cars. They didn’t, because they were stupid. It’s why Europe, who is somewhat just as population concentrated by China, hasn’t crossed the EV level. They didn’t build the chargers first. China has put the gas (battery) to the wall on both charger and cars.

7) I knew like five years ago the EV thing wasn’t going to work in America. All the EV proponents live in single family homes where they can install their own independent chargers. What was my former apartment complex gonna do? We all rent. Who’s gonna pay to install hundreds of chargers at each parking spot for those who rent? Nobody. The nearest chargers to my old apartment complex were at the grocery store. There were four of them.

8) None of what I said above is a surprise to the West’s business and corporate elite. They know these things. They just don’t lead anymore, so nothing gets done. Yes, a lot of China’s EV investment was provided by State funds, sure. Who cares? It’s not just about up front money. It’s a leapfrog in technology that the West’s car firms will take decades to transition to, with all the economical, labor, social, and political aspects all rolled into one = failure.

9) Our belligerent prediction? In fifty years everyone will be (mostly) driving Chinese made or at least designed EVs.

Have a nice day. Sit down and listen to a happy bird chirping. As I need to do.