Ukraine – One side’s already won, so solving this isn’t that hard

I’m going to end this crisis faster than the time it takes thugs to beat protestors outside the Kremlin.  As I lay this out, please keep in mind I’m not going to ponder the morals or justice of what I’m proposing.  My personal views should be well clear based upon what I’ve previously posted.  I’m just trying to fix the problem at hand given the reality of our current planet.

Facts:

1) Russia has conquered Crimea.

2) Ukraine cannot defeat Russia in battle.

3) The West will not use military force against Russia under any circumstances.

Assumptions:

1) Uncle Vladimir

– Has already calculated the impact of potential Western sanctions, verbal scolding, or isolation and has determined this is worth what he gains by taking Crimea.

– Will not attack the remainder of Ukraine.

– Goal is to own Crimea in the same manner as Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

– Is less concerned with who actually rules Ukraine than ensuring it does not enter EU orbit.

2) Ukraine’s New Leadership

– Does not have a strong enough mandate or cash to unite all of Ukraine against Russia.

– Will eventually realize the West cannot and will not protect them.

– Will determine that negotiation is their only realistic option.

3) The West

– Will accept Russian control of Crimea in the same manner as it has accepted sovereign Georgian territory is ruled by Russia.

Opinion:

1) Uncle Vladimir

– Always desired to control Crimea in this manner but has used current events to achieve it.

– Is generally smart enough to know when to quit while he is ahead, like when he let France ‘broker’ a deal to stop the Georgian war.

2) Ukraine’s New Leadership

– Backed themselves into a corner by promoting conflict instead of reconciliation.  (see old posts)

– Are not in control of the Ukrainian street any more than Cousin Viktor.

– Are of the same corrupt & establishment mold as Cousin Viktor.

3) The West

– Is completely irrelevant to the eventual outcome.

Solution:

Ukraine and Russia need to cut a deal.

Proposed Terms:

1) Russia maintains military control of Crimea.

2) Russia will ‘rent’ Crimea from Ukraine by paying an annual fee, say in natural gas.

3) Russia will not invade any other portion of Ukraine.

4) Ukraine will hold free and fair elections within six months under international supervision.

5) Ukraine will not pursue any EU or NATO alignment for at least five years.

6) Russia will not force Ukraine to join the Eurasian Union for at least five years.

7) Trade agreements between Russia & Ukraine and EU & Ukraine revert to their previous standings.

You may think that most of what I’ve written above is foolishness.  You’d be right.  But the dirty little secret is the world’s most accomplished diplomats aren’t going to do any better.

vladimir_next

I’m in control.  You all have to deal with reality on my terms.  My opponents are children and you know it.  I’m not sorry.

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