Category Archives: Russia

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Crimea – Be careful what you wish for

An Arcturan bolt pistol is to your temple.  You have five seconds to choose.  In twenty years, you’re very much alive, but you can only live in Russia or Ukraine.  Don’t give me how you hate the options, it’s all you get.  Five seconds to choose.  Go!

…

You chose Ukraine?  Yeah, I figured.  If you’d picked Russia, Esh-Ala would have squeezed the trigger.

In the original Batman movie, still the best, Lieutenant Eckhart possesses an inability to “think about the future”.  This results in him taking a revolver round to the chest in a comic book chemical factory.  If I were a Russian in Crimea, I’d be thinking about the future a great deal.

Who knows what the planet will look like in twenty years.  But I’ll bet my money that Ukraine’s going to look a lot better than the alternative.  When in doubt, bet on freedom and democracy kids, it usually works out.  Will Ukraine have these things in twenty years, maybe not, but I’ll still go with them first.

Now granted, there’s something to be said for trying to live with your kin.  But saying an ethnic Russian in Crimea is happier living under a dictator than he would be under a Ukrainian democracy is like saying a Deutsche in Strasbourg would enjoy living more under Hitler because they’re both German.

(mumblings)  What?  (mumblings)  Why can’t I make that comparison?  (mumblings)  She said what?  (mumblings)  Who cares?  (mumblings)  Now wait a second, that doesn’t even make any sense.  Hitler was so much better than Uncle Vladimir that he got the West to actually sign off on the Sudetenland.  He also had a far higher body count at that point.  Although you have to admire how Vlad’s gotten Crimea without having to shoot even one human.  (mumblings)  Well, yes, maybe the West is going to cave just like they did back then.  (mumblings)  Yeah, yeah, I don’t know what century we’re living in either, but I think we’re on repeat.  It’s probably always felt like this.

idiocy

In six months, after Vladimir’s totally in control, what you’re doing now will result in your receiving Kremlin supplied tear gas and rubber bullets.  Enjoy what you’ve done.

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Ukraine – One side’s already won, so solving this isn’t that hard

I’m going to end this crisis faster than the time it takes thugs to beat protestors outside the Kremlin.  As I lay this out, please keep in mind I’m not going to ponder the morals or justice of what I’m proposing.  My personal views should be well clear based upon what I’ve previously posted.  I’m just trying to fix the problem at hand given the reality of our current planet.

Facts:

1) Russia has conquered Crimea.

2) Ukraine cannot defeat Russia in battle.

3) The West will not use military force against Russia under any circumstances.

Assumptions:

1) Uncle Vladimir

– Has already calculated the impact of potential Western sanctions, verbal scolding, or isolation and has determined this is worth what he gains by taking Crimea.

– Will not attack the remainder of Ukraine.

– Goal is to own Crimea in the same manner as Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

– Is less concerned with who actually rules Ukraine than ensuring it does not enter EU orbit.

2) Ukraine’s New Leadership

– Does not have a strong enough mandate or cash to unite all of Ukraine against Russia.

– Will eventually realize the West cannot and will not protect them.

– Will determine that negotiation is their only realistic option.

3) The West

– Will accept Russian control of Crimea in the same manner as it has accepted sovereign Georgian territory is ruled by Russia.

Opinion:

1) Uncle Vladimir

– Always desired to control Crimea in this manner but has used current events to achieve it.

– Is generally smart enough to know when to quit while he is ahead, like when he let France ‘broker’ a deal to stop the Georgian war.

2) Ukraine’s New Leadership

– Backed themselves into a corner by promoting conflict instead of reconciliation.  (see old posts)

– Are not in control of the Ukrainian street any more than Cousin Viktor.

– Are of the same corrupt & establishment mold as Cousin Viktor.

3) The West

– Is completely irrelevant to the eventual outcome.

Solution:

Ukraine and Russia need to cut a deal.

Proposed Terms:

1) Russia maintains military control of Crimea.

2) Russia will ‘rent’ Crimea from Ukraine by paying an annual fee, say in natural gas.

3) Russia will not invade any other portion of Ukraine.

4) Ukraine will hold free and fair elections within six months under international supervision.

5) Ukraine will not pursue any EU or NATO alignment for at least five years.

6) Russia will not force Ukraine to join the Eurasian Union for at least five years.

7) Trade agreements between Russia & Ukraine and EU & Ukraine revert to their previous standings.

You may think that most of what I’ve written above is foolishness.  You’d be right.  But the dirty little secret is the world’s most accomplished diplomats aren’t going to do any better.

vladimir_next

I’m in control.  You all have to deal with reality on my terms.  My opponents are children and you know it.  I’m not sorry.

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Ukraine – We’re back in the 13th century

In 1240, Mongol forces under Batu Khan sacked Kiev and killed pretty much everybody in the city.  Why?  Because he could.  Like all his Mongol counterparts, Batu was a snarky dick.  He regularly taunted other rulers with how powerless they were to resist him.  Said Batu to Bela, King of Hungry, “you dwell in houses and have fixed towns and fortresses, so how will you escape me”.

This is what I think of given the last two days.  Love or hate Uncle Vladimir, in foreign affairs at least, he is a master.  He knows how to play the game and against him just about every Western diplomat comes off as a rank amateur.

Yesterday, Secretary Kerry made it a point to “warn” Russia about military intervention in Ukraine.  You could almost hear Vladimir blurt at the television, “What are you going to do about it, pig?”  And then this morning Russian marines took over a pair of airports.  Why did Vladimir do this?  Because he can.

As this blog previously discussed, the differences in will between Russia and the West are glaring.  If I was a Ukrainian revolutionary, I’d change my tune.

decisive

This one marine is more decisive to the outcome than every diplomat in the West combined.

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Ukraine – How not to start the beginning of a revolution

Two things come to mind within my overly pessimistic brain on this issue:

1) The opposition reached out with hate and rage instead of reconciliation

I always tend to put the caution lights on when the new rulers in town sound angry, very angry.  If you just shed a great deal of blood, souls, and lives to overthrow a murdering asshole dictator, would you:

a)  Make it a point to talk like an asshole

or

b)  Make it a point to talk rather different

Madam Tymoshenko (not everybody’s squeaky clean all-star) riddled her Maidan speech with fire, revenge, and a call to arms.  Now if anybody has just cause to get pissed off it’s her, and she’s also been sick for a long time.  But in these circumstances she needed to understand the context of the moment.

If you are a true leader (and not a closet kleptocrat as I think she is [see my previous post on ‘new’ opposition leaders]), there are times you must be above your emotions and the events that surround you.  This is what makes the likes of Washington & Mandela so special.  It’s not that they’re saints, though they mostly were, it’s that they had the power to understand the context of their moments.  Then they responded accordingly when the vast, vast majority of their counterparts wanted to go a different way.  Madam Tymoshenko is giving the crowd what they want to hear.  A Washington or Mandela knew better.  Sometimes the crowd needs to hear the thing they hate the most.

Washington and Mandela’s real weapons were an emphasis upon reconciliation, restraint, and generally (here’s the kicker) not acting like complete assholes.  From Ukraine we now hear of charges for Cousin Viktor, the blood of martyrs, and justice.  Folks, justice and blood can come later, or not.  But right now you need to strive for peace, rebuild destroyed institutions, and oh yeah, run a very large, broke country.

2) Russia wants it more

Why is point (1) a problem?  It’s not just because I think those who fight hard for freedom and democracy should be the better humans; it’s because they have a big problem; an Uncle Vladimir problem.  Tymoshenko and her allies have severely miscalculated.  They think they are safe given the power of the Ukrainian street.  They don’t understand how the world works.

I remain very ashamed to admit this, but sooner or later the non-free peoples of the planet are going to realize the modern West is populated with cowards.  The free peoples of the world are not interested in fighting for the non-free peoples of the world.  Sorry.

Don’t believe me, ask your Syrian, Zimbabwean, or Bahraini neighbor.  The Ukrainian opposition (or, I guess, national leadership?) has cast their lot with the West, or more chiefly the EU.  But, the problem is Russia and the EU see this situation very differently.

As an example, can you picture Russian tanks rolling down the streets of Kiev in six weeks?  Well friends, that’s a little extreme, but it’s certainly possible under many circumstances.  I’m sure you could at least imagine it?  Ask your Georgian neighbor.

Well, how about NATO tanks?  No, never, not in a million years.  The simple fact is for Uncle Vladimir, Ukraine is a matter of vital national interest.  It is not so for the EU.  Thus, the situation calls for a level of caution not on display by Ukraine’s new leadership.

They have handed Uncle Vladimir the one thing he needs to run over the country; a divided Ukraine; with an eastern ethnic Russian population crying out for a savior.  Uncle Vladimir is only too happy to oblige.

Better to work together with the ethnic Russians of Ukraine to attempt an actual country.  Will this fail?  Probably.  But without the attempt, the savior is thus born.  The alternative is to increase the ethnic Russian population of Ukraine by however many conscripts compose a modern motorized armored division.

tanky_tank

“The coaxial will work a lot better than tear gas.  Let’s go with that to start.”

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Ukraine – This is not the end of the beginning

I will admit I am rather surprised to see this level of violence.  You would think Uncle Vladimir would have asked Cousin Viktor to hold off for at least for another week until people can no longer spell Sochi.  I think a couple of things are at work here:

–  The vast majority of the protestors appear to have accepted the government’s amnesty and abandoned their posts over this last weekend

–  This left a very small (perhaps about 20 thousand) but hardcore group who desire neither amnesty or the status quo

–  Cousin Viktor decided to use this window of opportunity to dispense with this hardcore group before the more moderate opposition realized he was playing them for fools and got back on the streets

–  Cousin Viktor may have been told to wait for a week by Uncle Vladimir; but likely told him to go back to watching figure skating; Viktor knows a week may have closed out his window; thus the assault on Maidan

The security forces’ attack did not go according to plan.  Syria has shown what you need to truly crush this kind of revolt:  An army or police force that is willing to employ automatic weapons against unarmed civilians like it’s the Fourth Reich come to life.

At this point, the Ukrainian forces aren’t willing to do that.  So what they confronted was a highly organized, motivated, and disciplined protest force.  The hardcore opposition was apparently planning for this kind of battle for weeks.  As the security forces aren’t willing to use their overwhelming lethal force, you get stalemate and chaos.

Some countries are perhaps not meant to be.  I heard an interesting stat on the radio yesterday.  About 40% of Ukraine’s population supports the protests, while 40% support the government, leaving 20% who are too dazed or stupid to respond to reality.  However, a very large majority from both sides do not support Cousin Viktor.  This is not a recipe for a sustained nation.  You can easily see how the Russian eastern half could make a push to remain in charge or transfer to Russia while the western half goes elsewhere.  Anybody think this will all occur cleanly?

This is only going to get worse.  A line is now crossed.  When this much blood is shed, emotions & then positions harden.  Cousin Viktor is now about to learn a very important lesson of our cowardly post-modern world.  When you spill your citizen’s blood, it’s not as bad as you think.  I suspect he’ll actually be rather surprised at how little the UN, EU, and/or USA will do to him and his ruling elite.  A lot of talk will occur, but Viktor’s going to discover that he can still act while everybody else talks.  Then the only limiting factor on whether he can remain in power is how willing he is to kill and whether his men are willing to obey the orders to slay their neighbors.  Either way it’s going to be awful.

maidan19feb

“I am the hand of God, the fate of all lies in the decision I make.”

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Sochi 2014 – It’s time to separate into two teams

I did not watch the opening ceremony.  I will not do so.  I know what message Putin will attempt to send.  I don’t need to see it produced as theater.  He’s made himself very clear these last fifteen years.

Read about Sochi and you’ll get a different view depending on who’s speaking.  Most folks seem keen to support the games while offering disgust at the hosts.  Above all, it is Putin’s anti-homosexuality comments and laws that draw the most hate.  I wonder if Putin had just left homosexuals out of it.  Could he have sold these games as the spectacular statement about his miracle that he’d intended?  He certainly has willing accomplices.

Last night I watched the sewer scrappers at NBC Sports sing the praises about how this Russia is so much better than the old Soviet Union.  This filth comes from the mouth of ‘reporters’ who have never and will never live the life of a normal Russian citizen.

Yet I’m sure they don’t give a damn.  For them, Sochi is about cash.  Lots of cash.  Damning the hosts to hell over their behavior is not a way to widen your audience when you’ve invested billions in production and purchase costs.  NBC Sports wants one thing from Sochi:  profit.  If you think they care about anything else, regardless of the prophet-like statements that emerge from Costas’ arrogant mouth, you’re a fool.  They want your eyes.  They’re in your wallets.

Lost among the massive hate of Putin’s anti-gay remarks (this blog has equally hit upon them) is the general awfulness that is present.  The simple truth is this:

These games should never have happened in Sochi.

I’m sorry, but I’m over it.  It’s time that those who care about freedom and democracy stop pouring muck into the trough that is other people’s lives.  Building international relationships is generally overrated.  There will be no tangible benefit to Russia’s place in the world from Sochi.  Putin is not going to embrace reform, fight corruption, or generally be a better guy because of Sochi.  All the Olympics have done is feed an evil man and his parasitic ruling structure.

And for what?  Well, for a cherished tradition?  Wrong.  We’ve only done this Olympics thing for just over a century.  For money?  Only partially, the athletes are out there for the spiritual awesomeness.  Most of them (except those in the commercials) don’t care about money.

It’s about momentum.  The corrupt IOC chose Sochi.  So everybody goes to Sochi.  Even if they think Putin is a criminal.

Well friends, the author of this blog thinks it’s time for a change.

I’m not asking for bad things to happen in Sochi.  I want these games to go forward without violence and without any major issues.  It’s about the athletes now.  They’ve worked very hard for years to get there, everybody agreed to participate, and so off they go.  I hope they all can succeed, have fun, and accomplish their goals.

However, here is the honest truth.  These games are immoral.  The average Russian will see their life made worse by deliberate sleaze, expense, and by the international legitimacy their dictator gains from playing teenage party queen.

It’s time to change.  The portion of the planet that believes liberty is a good thing needs to back it up.  It’s just sports folks, we can live without it.  Let every decent nation on the planet refuse to participate in events where the wicked are allowed to put on a show, where we are all charged admission, to watch justice play a bit part.

The Olympics, Word Cup, Commonwealth Games, whatever.  Let democracies hold their own games, where only other republics can play.  Let all the tyrannical lunatics hold their own games, with all their narcissism, alone.  At least then we could have a clean conscience while we watch brilliant contestants at their best.

And if we ever decide to hold another worldwide Olympics?  Let the team of freedom and justice play against the team representing hate and darkness.  We can compete on neutral ground, say Switzerland or Valhalla.

I know who’d win.

sochi_opening_rehersal_840_533_100

Brought to you by the blood of a nation’s future.

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Sochi 2014 – There’s only one child here, Vladimir

I may hammer away at Sochi, but you just can’t let this stuff go. One of my greatest problems with today’s international community is moral cowardice. More on say, Syria, later. That’s a crisis that is probably too hard for the world to solve. But what made the world participate in Sochi?

A good chunk of the globe’s leadership is staying away from the games and that’s good, but it’s not enough. Where are the world leaders telling Uncle Vladimir he’s a fucking idiot? Well, they either don’t care, or they don’t want to ruffle Vlad’s feathers because their athletes are on the way. I’m voting that it’s both.

Either way, if the modern planet won’t stand up for its values, who will? Satan? Hitler’s ghost? Maybe Winston Churchill and George Washington will rise from the dead to claim Vladimir’s soul in an orgy of red misty violence. Now that’s an Olympic event worth watching.

At least Putin tells us what he thinks. We’d all be a lot better off if politicians spoke their minds more often. In today’s machine engineered media, five misplaced words can destroy a human’s career. So now, anything that is said is suspect. This is not healthy for a culture that we all hope is built upon things like free speech.

I think one of the reasons people tend to favor the likes of Chris Christie, Boris Johnson, and Joe Biden, even if they substantially disagree with their policies, is that all of these men say what’s on their minds. People find it refreshing to hear from a leader who, you know, leads, and treats the voter with enough respect to be honest. Even if they sometimes roundhouse kick themselves in the mouth.

Disagree with me? Well how about this. Can we all agree it’s usually not a good idea for our leaders to lie? Why yes! Well, I submit that when a leader says only things that are vetted through a team of twelve interns and public relations slime, it’s equivalent to lying. Either way the public doesn’t get the truth. So don’t take this the wrong way, I don’t want Putin to shut up, I want him to say more. But I also want our leaders to speak their minds too. Try this delight on for size:

Putin: I hate fags, they are immoral.

Merkel: You’re wrong Vladimir. You’re a bigot and a dictator and this shows it. People are free to determine their own lives.

Obama: Yes, I agree, there’s a reason you keep saying these things.

Putin: But…

Cameron: No, they’re right. All you want to do is distract people from the rotten state of your shitty leadership. We have values and morals, you’re just an asshole.

Abe: Yes, a total piece of rat feces.

Putin: #d8c^kk!!!

But instead, all we get is this:

“You can feel free in your relationships but leave children in peace.”

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25785161

Followed by silence.

This coming from a man who authorized the use of fuel air explosives in an urban environment when it was pretty clear to everyone that civilians, including a lot of children, were hiding in basements.

As you’re enjoying the figure staking, make sure to remember that Sochi is about 300 miles from Grozny. And then bask in the deafening silence of cowardice from your leadership.

nicetalk