Israel’s not going to make it

Today the Israeli parliament passed a law that removes the military service exception for Ultra-Orthodox citizens.  The bill went forward with a near unanimous vote.  That is, the entire opposition boycotted the vote.  Half the legislative body of the country does not understand the danger they are in.  The drama that accompanied this issue brings to mind a thought I’ve had for quite a while.  Israel’s not going to make it.

1) Israel has already lost the information war

Israel has learned the hard way that it doesn’t matter who is right or wrong, just don’t let your situation become a “cause”.  Just ask anybody who is against homosexuals, for cigarettes or large sodas, for cancer, against immigration, loves obesity, for guns, or against whales.  Once you have received the mark of evil from the media and establishment elite, there is nothing you can do to escape.  You are a target for destruction and nobody cares how valid your cause is.

In this, Israel has their own arrogance to thank alongside a Palestinian leadership who has played the information game with mastery for almost two decades.  The result is Israel is the only country on Earth that is treated with hatred when it returns fire against people who lob rockets at school bus stops.

The people of the world are not going to lift a finger to help Israel should it find itself in a true existential crisis.  You might think that eventually America would find a way, even if it did so alone.  Think again.  Public opinion has changed in America as well, mostly in the last five years.  Want to know what the world will do if Israel was truly in danger of elimination?  Take a look at Crimea.  The response on Israel’s behalf will be equally as effective.

2) The world’s Jews don’t care about Israel

For whatever reason, most of the rest of the world’s Jews do not care.  Public opinion among Jews has also moved partially against Israel and its actions.  I’m not going to really argue the details of why.  That takes a book.  To be honest, I don’t really get it, but I suspect it’s because Jews are not the supranational block people think they are.

Jews can disagree and fold into disparate groups just like anybody else.  A Jew in America is an American first and can join the anti-Israel cause alongside their neighbor.  They separate themselves from Israel because they have no connection with the country other than their religion.  For most Jews, like the rest of the growing secular world, the influence of religion is steadily declining.  In the old days Israel could count upon the world’s Jews for money, bodies, or influence.  Those days are over.

3) Peace will never occur

Peace between the Palestinians and Israel is never going to happen.  Ever.  The sides are just too far apart in their demands.  The hatred is too deep.  There are too many people who will sabotage the process.  If you are a Zionist or a member of the governing Israeli coalition, you probably find this appealing.  If so, you’re an idiot.

Israel is not in a position to survive a future based upon the status quo.  In order to retain the current circumstances Israel would need to import more Jewish immigrants, have more babies, or strike oil under the Tel Aviv beaches to buy everybody off.  In this sense, the influx of Jewish immigrants from the old Soviet Union may have bought Israel an extra decade of ignoring the reality of demographics.

There are simply going to be more Arab babies, both inside and outside Israel, than Jewish babies.  Why is this a problem?  Over time it’s going to be readily apparent that Israel can be a Jewish apartheid state or a multi-cultural democracy.  They can’t have both because there won’t be enough Jews to vote a Jewish majority in a functioning democracy.  The alternative is to deny Arabs the vote and thus further incur the wrath of folks who have taken up the anti-Israel cause.

Israel is already on the world’s hit list.  It just cannot sustain the further degradation that comes with attempting to maintain a Jewish majority where there is none.  Is peace the answer?  Maybe not, but it’s the only option short of having more kids.

Israel has to cut some kind of deal with the Palestinians that guarantees its Jewish future while everybody else can’t look at birth rates and conduct basic math.  Otherwise, once the apartheid line is crossed, it’s only a matter of time.  Just ask your militant Afrikaner neighbor.  Nobody can survive forever once the entire international community collectively has your demolition in mind.

4) In the end, the country will slay itself

Since almost the beginning of Israel’s founding the Ultra-Orthodox military exception has existed.  At the time they were a very small minority.  Depending on how you count them, they now make up between one-in-ten to a full quarter of Israel’s population.  Their “men” do not work.  They rely upon religion, the state, and their wives to feed them.  In a country surrounded by enemies, they will not carry a weapon or lift a finger to help the state.  They feel this way not because they are selfish; even worse, they see it as their right.

I cannot think of a more glaring illustration of a country intent on destroying itself.  That they now have to serve in the military does not mean they will serve in combat units or even an effective support unit.  In fact, the Israeli army tends to treat them with disgust due their lack of motivation and low performance standards.  Yet the Ultra-Orthodox have the highest Jewish birth rate in the country by an exponential factor.  In the end, they’ll get whatever country they vote for themselves.

Israel has survived this long by maintaining a patriotic, dedicated population ready to sacrifice their lives and future to maintain the survival of the state.  In a country where a significant minority, and half the legislature, is willing to allow what one day might be the largest group inside the country to ignore service, it’s over folks.  It’s just over before it begins.

They all think it’s going to last forever.  That’s a common trait in human history.  A society, culture, or country typically does not acknowledge the danger until it’s too late.  Maybe you can’t blame them given the victorious history these last sixty years.  But they don’t live in Paris.  They live in arguably the most dangerous ground in human history.  If you can’t pick up a gun to defend your rights, you’re going to get killed, change religion, or run away.  I recommend the Ultra-Orthodox think hard on this, because if I’m right, within say fifty years, they’ll have to pick one of these options.


More dangerous to their country’s future than an Iranian nuke

3 thoughts on “Israel’s not going to make it

  1. A couple of points:

    1) The former Soviet migration may have bought Israel a decade, but it also comes at a price: secularization. The former-Soviet “Jews” were the Russians who had enough money/savvy to get the nationality on their passports changed from “Russkii” to “Yevrei”. They are completely invested in survival, but are not invested in a *Jewish* state.

    2) Israel used to be able to count on the support of American evangelicals (who at one point largely subscribed to a “dispensational” theology which included support for the political state of Israel as a continuation of God’s Chosen People of the Old Testament). In recent years, though, younger generations of American evangelicals have increasingly flocked to one of two types of churches:
    a) Churches with Reformed, covenantal theology which teach that the New Testament (and beyond) church is the inheritor of God’s covenants with ancient Israel, vice some artificial political entity, or
    b) neo-liberal churches which emphasize the importance of “social justice” causes and champion the Palestinian cause in some form.
    The result may be that the “market share” of American evangelicals willing to throw their support behind AIPAC and the Israel lobby is decreasing.

    3.) On the other hand, the exploitation of oil in the eastern Mediterranean Sea (provided Israel can defend it) has bought Israel an additional decade… or two. This may in fact prolong the existential problems you point out.


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