Tag Archives: Ukraine

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Ukraine – How not to start the beginning of a revolution

Two things come to mind within my overly pessimistic brain on this issue:

1) The opposition reached out with hate and rage instead of reconciliation

I always tend to put the caution lights on when the new rulers in town sound angry, very angry.  If you just shed a great deal of blood, souls, and lives to overthrow a murdering asshole dictator, would you:

a)  Make it a point to talk like an asshole

or

b)  Make it a point to talk rather different

Madam Tymoshenko (not everybody’s squeaky clean all-star) riddled her Maidan speech with fire, revenge, and a call to arms.  Now if anybody has just cause to get pissed off it’s her, and she’s also been sick for a long time.  But in these circumstances she needed to understand the context of the moment.

If you are a true leader (and not a closet kleptocrat as I think she is [see my previous post on ‘new’ opposition leaders]), there are times you must be above your emotions and the events that surround you.  This is what makes the likes of Washington & Mandela so special.  It’s not that they’re saints, though they mostly were, it’s that they had the power to understand the context of their moments.  Then they responded accordingly when the vast, vast majority of their counterparts wanted to go a different way.  Madam Tymoshenko is giving the crowd what they want to hear.  A Washington or Mandela knew better.  Sometimes the crowd needs to hear the thing they hate the most.

Washington and Mandela’s real weapons were an emphasis upon reconciliation, restraint, and generally (here’s the kicker) not acting like complete assholes.  From Ukraine we now hear of charges for Cousin Viktor, the blood of martyrs, and justice.  Folks, justice and blood can come later, or not.  But right now you need to strive for peace, rebuild destroyed institutions, and oh yeah, run a very large, broke country.

2) Russia wants it more

Why is point (1) a problem?  It’s not just because I think those who fight hard for freedom and democracy should be the better humans; it’s because they have a big problem; an Uncle Vladimir problem.  Tymoshenko and her allies have severely miscalculated.  They think they are safe given the power of the Ukrainian street.  They don’t understand how the world works.

I remain very ashamed to admit this, but sooner or later the non-free peoples of the planet are going to realize the modern West is populated with cowards.  The free peoples of the world are not interested in fighting for the non-free peoples of the world.  Sorry.

Don’t believe me, ask your Syrian, Zimbabwean, or Bahraini neighbor.  The Ukrainian opposition (or, I guess, national leadership?) has cast their lot with the West, or more chiefly the EU.  But, the problem is Russia and the EU see this situation very differently.

As an example, can you picture Russian tanks rolling down the streets of Kiev in six weeks?  Well friends, that’s a little extreme, but it’s certainly possible under many circumstances.  I’m sure you could at least imagine it?  Ask your Georgian neighbor.

Well, how about NATO tanks?  No, never, not in a million years.  The simple fact is for Uncle Vladimir, Ukraine is a matter of vital national interest.  It is not so for the EU.  Thus, the situation calls for a level of caution not on display by Ukraine’s new leadership.

They have handed Uncle Vladimir the one thing he needs to run over the country; a divided Ukraine; with an eastern ethnic Russian population crying out for a savior.  Uncle Vladimir is only too happy to oblige.

Better to work together with the ethnic Russians of Ukraine to attempt an actual country.  Will this fail?  Probably.  But without the attempt, the savior is thus born.  The alternative is to increase the ethnic Russian population of Ukraine by however many conscripts compose a modern motorized armored division.

tanky_tank

“The coaxial will work a lot better than tear gas.  Let’s go with that to start.”

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Ukraine – This is not the end of the beginning

I will admit I am rather surprised to see this level of violence.  You would think Uncle Vladimir would have asked Cousin Viktor to hold off for at least for another week until people can no longer spell Sochi.  I think a couple of things are at work here:

–  The vast majority of the protestors appear to have accepted the government’s amnesty and abandoned their posts over this last weekend

–  This left a very small (perhaps about 20 thousand) but hardcore group who desire neither amnesty or the status quo

–  Cousin Viktor decided to use this window of opportunity to dispense with this hardcore group before the more moderate opposition realized he was playing them for fools and got back on the streets

–  Cousin Viktor may have been told to wait for a week by Uncle Vladimir; but likely told him to go back to watching figure skating; Viktor knows a week may have closed out his window; thus the assault on Maidan

The security forces’ attack did not go according to plan.  Syria has shown what you need to truly crush this kind of revolt:  An army or police force that is willing to employ automatic weapons against unarmed civilians like it’s the Fourth Reich come to life.

At this point, the Ukrainian forces aren’t willing to do that.  So what they confronted was a highly organized, motivated, and disciplined protest force.  The hardcore opposition was apparently planning for this kind of battle for weeks.  As the security forces aren’t willing to use their overwhelming lethal force, you get stalemate and chaos.

Some countries are perhaps not meant to be.  I heard an interesting stat on the radio yesterday.  About 40% of Ukraine’s population supports the protests, while 40% support the government, leaving 20% who are too dazed or stupid to respond to reality.  However, a very large majority from both sides do not support Cousin Viktor.  This is not a recipe for a sustained nation.  You can easily see how the Russian eastern half could make a push to remain in charge or transfer to Russia while the western half goes elsewhere.  Anybody think this will all occur cleanly?

This is only going to get worse.  A line is now crossed.  When this much blood is shed, emotions & then positions harden.  Cousin Viktor is now about to learn a very important lesson of our cowardly post-modern world.  When you spill your citizen’s blood, it’s not as bad as you think.  I suspect he’ll actually be rather surprised at how little the UN, EU, and/or USA will do to him and his ruling elite.  A lot of talk will occur, but Viktor’s going to discover that he can still act while everybody else talks.  Then the only limiting factor on whether he can remain in power is how willing he is to kill and whether his men are willing to obey the orders to slay their neighbors.  Either way it’s going to be awful.

maidan19feb

“I am the hand of God, the fate of all lies in the decision I make.”

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Is this what they fought for?

Many of you went to bed last night dreaming of dresses you saw on The Grammy’s or of the bizarre sight of NFL players chasing down members of their own team.

Either way, while a good portion of the world slept, the Egyptian army fired live rounds at young democracy protestors.  Note that this wasn’t a group of Muslim Brotherhood members; but university students of the same category as those who disposed of Hosni Mubarak three years ago.  Today we also learned that General Sisi (I stopped using the term Field Marshall to describe active ranks in 1946) has the approval of the army to run for president.  So what does that mean in today’s Arab world?  General Sisi is the next president of Egypt.

So if you were a student dodging small arms fire yesterday how would you feel as you went to sleep?  Well, I gather about the same as a pro-democracy campaigner in Damascus, a trade union affiliate in South Africa, or a human rights crusader in Burma.

As I look at history I am drawn to two inescapable conclusions regarding these matters:

1)  Most revolutions, rebellions, & uprisings are ultimately hijacked by assholes who care only for their own self-interest and/or enrichment.

2)  If democracy is the pinnacle of human government, it is also the hardest to achieve.

Want to do away with a dictator?  Want freedom, justice, and the good way of life?  Well, don’t we all.  If you live in a country that does not possess these things you can either escape or prepare for the long haul.

Magna Carta is eight centuries old and the British republic is still under development.  At the other end, there are probably turtles older than the American constitution.  Some countries with absolutely no precedent of it, like Japan, figured it out relatively quickly.  Look at any of these countries’ history and I offer that the road was hard, awful, and it took a really long time.  Everybody wants to be free; but be prepared to earn it, it takes forever.

And so I offer just a few points for those in Ukraine who are just getting things kicked off.  Call them little reminders you should bear in mind as you dodge tear gas, rubber bullets, Satan, mad cow disease, live rounds, and generally hope what you’re doing matters:

1)  Look to your left, and then to your right.  Odds are one of them is a criminal who does not care about your cause and is just there for kicks.  The other one is a coward who is wrapped up in the moment and will be gone by next week.

2)  Your opposition leaders are just as bad as the people you’re kicking out.  If you think once they’re in power that you can change the rules of the game, you’ll quickly find out the game is the same, just with different players.

3)  The international community does not care about you or your cause and will not lift a finger to aid you.  You’re going to have to do it on your own.

4)  Your country does not possess the institutions necessary to support liberty.  You’re going to have to build them over decades while at every turn people will battle you to maintain the status quo.

5)  If you mean it, then this is your life’s work.  Not a few months on the streets.  You’re going to have to fight, every day, for the rest of your life.  Always watchful, vigilant, and brawling for a better tomorrow.  Even if you succeed, it’ll be a grinding, tough life.  All you can do is hope by your sacrifice that later generations will live the freedom you have bought them.  And maybe if you’re lucky and good at it, you’ll get a little taste of it before you check out.

Do you find these conditions unappealing?  Then stay home.

thejob

Hardest job on the planet after Bear Baiter.