Category Archives: War

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Russia’s not going to make it

Want to beat Vladimir Putin? Strangle him. No, not the physical act (although that would work too) but the long term quest to remove his ways from our reality. We all want to defeat him and his demolish his evil world order, right? If you don’t, you’ve come to the wrong place, please go away. Or, please leave a tasty comment below about how much you love your Uncle Vlad so we can thrash your worldview and break your brain.

Every morning my guests ponder the forthcoming demise of the human race over coffee. Typically the conversation revolves around how they will personally bring about said demise via their direct actions. I find this all very amusing given their current circumstances. But I guess it’s comforting for them to reminisce what it was like when they weren’t a bunch of exiled interstellar losers.

Even though I kind of admire Vlad for actually, you know, giving a damn and generally doing what he says, I still hope for his imminent departure. But the problem in my mind was how to bring this about given the difficulty. And so I proposed a challenge to my guests, to plot the downfall of Vlad and his organism. At first they laughed at me, like a small child had just asked them about sex. But I left them to it and surprisingly they made it happen.

Thus, what follows is a rough translation of their conspiracy to aid good for once, instead of evil. I was actually rather surprised to see the complete lack of barbarity, liquidation, and throwing of many chairs. The nuance and theory only makes me fear them more. But that’s a separate issue. For the moment, Russia’s really kicked the shit out of the forces of good lately. Time to plan our revenge.

putin1

In reality, he’s probably the most scared guy on the planet.

– Don’t do anything major

Let’s face the truth. The Ukraine crisis has exposed the entirety of the West as a bunch of limp-wristed-losers. Nobody’s interested in confronting evil in any significant way anymore. It’s hard, it requires sacrifice, success is not guaranteed. And in any case, the mall beckons. So asking for anything dramatic from the West is unlikely and thus a nonstarter. But it’s okay, because we don’t want to do anything major.

Why? Because it won’t work. If war or hardcore diplomacy is an exercise in who can absorb the most pain, then it’s a certainty that Putin and Russia can endure more pain. First off, war is not on the table. Russia is always going to have the nuclear trump card. Why do you think Vlad conducted a full blown ICBM test just days after he stole Crimea?

No matter how many British fighters patrol Latvia or American paratroopers train in Poland everybody, everywhere knows it’s not coming to gunfire. Many folks, this forum included, are inclined to blame the Europeans for being selfish lightweights on defense. But honestly can you blame them?

If I live in Denmark, I’m probably smart enough to know my countrymen aren’t going to ever, ever trade tank rounds with the Russians. So why would he pay taxes for an armored division when he can use them for the welfare state?

Europe’s never going to war with Russia because of nuke. And thus massive conventional forces are apparently a waste of time and money. But America has lots of nukes already, so what’s the problem as far as the Europeans are concerned? America will always be there, that’s enough.

Vladimir Putin was prepared to take his country to war over Ukraine, Crimea, Georgia, and any number of other situations. If he wanted to pull the trigger, the people of Russia would go along. Either because they agreed with him or because they don’t get the chance to weigh in. No citizen on the street in the West is about to risk everything over Donetsk. And unlike Vlad, the leaders of the West are accountable to the will of their people.

And it doesn’t help that Vlad has made it a point to grab Europe by the balls. If you’re a citizen of the new Europe, and you like your heating bill small, your London bankers rich, your French shipbuilders employed, your Greek hotels full, or your Cyprus economy solvent, then you rely upon Russia. Vlad’s got your future wrapped up inside his tented fingers.

If Europe ever developed the desire to introduce sanctions that could really hurt Russia they would also greatly damage Europe. And because of this, the people of Europe are always going to break first. If a citizen of Russia sees their net worth dive 20% in one year, what are they going to do? Protest in the streets and get beaten? If a citizen of Italy sees their net worth dive 20% in one year, the fragile European project falls apart in a sea of recrimination, hatred, and failure.

But for our purposes here today, it’s all good. Because we’re accepting all of this as reality and are going to maneuver around it. We can’t punch Vlad in the face. In a brawl, a fistfight, Vlad wins. So instead, we’re going to strangle him. And that doesn’t mean we’re going to make our way into his harem bedchamber and off him with a good old piece of Lubyanka wire. No, we’re going to very slowly take oxygen away from him until he passes out at his desk.

putin2

My guests rejected the bottlenose dolphin assassination option as ‘unreliable’ and ‘too kind’.

– Time to ensnare Russia with the spell of fear

Often throughout human history, it turns out that the loud asshole in the room is actually the one most scared and in the greatest danger. This concept has applied to Russia about sixteen times since the dawn of man. And so it’s true now as well.

Think Europe is doomed, well, we’ll see, but Russia certainly is. Our present dictator is going to have a real hard time enslaving humanity when he’s leading a population that’s literally dying, nearly broke, and without long term economic prospects.

Russia’s 2013 fertility rate at 1.7 was roughly equivalent to Europe as a whole, but is still well below the required replacement rate of 2.1. Now granted, Russia’s not going to turn into the ghost town that you’ll soon see in Milan or Osaka, but the fact is that Russia’s population is shrinking dramatically. Can you remain a world power and expand your influence when your population is fading over decades? Nobody knows the answer to this question because we haven’t seen this phenomenon in human history yet. But I’m going to go ahead and say no.

People often talk of the “4-2-1 problem” in which four grandparents are followed by two parents but only one child. This is usually applied to East Asia or Italy, but Russia’s not that far off. Yes, Europe has the same problem. But these two problems aren’t really equivalent.

Europe’s not trying to conquer the planet anymore and so is reasonably comfortable with a quiet, comfortable decline. Nothing about Putin’s behavior or his people’s wishes indicates Russia is interested in sliding off into the sunset.

But if you don’t have the people, nothing else can follow. Now you’re probably thinking Russia can just rely on some form of immigration to overcome the problem. Well, it’s not going to happen. There are just not enough Tajiks on the planet to compensate for these decreased numbers.

Oh, and those remaining people are going to be broke too. Why? Because Russia doesn’t make anything. Go ask your local Chinese businessman where the future of humanity lies. Whether you like it or not, it’s in the making of things, smartphones, cars, juice makers, whatever. Toys, in the negative sense, if you will. China’s gotten rich in large part due to the making of such toys, and all their subordinate parts, by the billions. These trends are guiding the world’s path. Something like three-quarters of banking in Kenya is done via mobile phone. Get used to it.

And Russia has what to offer this new and prosperous outlook? Lots and lots of things to burn. And nothing else. Consistently around 2/3 of all Russian exports are various forms of fossil fuel. This has served Russia well over the last two decades, but unfortunately the train has already derailed. It’s just that nobody’s accepted the ride is over. They’re still drunk in the club car demanding another round as the cabin fills with smoke and flames. But at least their elevated blood alcohol level will allow them to burn more quickly.

Russia has no other industry worth mentioning. Name a car, smartphone, or idea that’s going to save over half the Russian economy. Now you might think that gas or oil will remain paramount and that Russia doesn’t really have a problem. Well, sorry, but you’re wrong.

Russia and China just did a deal that ships Russian gas to Chinese factories so the Chinese can make things. It’s a delightful deliciously deal for the Chinese. Once again, the modern world is shipping them raw materials so they can produce something useful, instead of the other way around.

It is roughly estimated that Russia is selling gas to China at 10-15% less than the price it currently provides to Europe. How long do you think that variation will last? Already there is talk that Europe will balk in large form against the winter 2014 contract prices offered by various Russian energy baron fucks.

And this is before a potential glut of American LNG hits the market in the coming years. Or when, eventually, some, most, or all of Europe gets into the fracking game. Or before, agree or disagree it’s going to happen, a large portion of Europe begins to rely on renewable energy.

Europe, who takes 30% of all gas from Russia, is increasingly going to do without it. And China won’t pick up the slack. China has already inked deals to get the remaining gas they need from the likes of Australia and Qatar. So when Europe stops drinking Russian gas, nobody else is going to step up. Or if Europe or anybody else does step up, they’re going to pay a lot less gold.

These numbers are all crucial because they hover around a tipping point. It is widely believed, although nobody can be really sure, that the current oil & gas prices and their export quantities are numbers that need to roughly remain static or grow, certainly not to fall. Otherwise Vlad literally begins to run out of cash to fuel his nightmare.

Vlad’s bought off or beaten much of his population. How’s he going to do this when the wheels come off, folks don’t have jobs, and can’t get through a single traffic stop without paying a bribe? What Russian riot policeman is willing to swing the club at his own people when he wakes up and realizes his employer is bankrupt?

Another key behind these trends in population and energy is the West doesn’t have to really do anything special. These things are going to happen naturally, over time, provided the planet does not dramatically alter its tidal paths.

We’re talking decades here, not years, but whether Vlad realizes it or not he’s built a system whose foundation lies atop a rotting corpse. Maybe he can turn on a dime, make changes, and apply a level of flexibility necessary overcome the forthcoming sinkhole. But I doubt it.

So what’s to be done by the West? Exacerbate Russia’s problem. Don’t just sit back and let Vlad’s system collapse. Just increase the tension a little, turn up the pain, and let the great wheel do the rest.

One of Russia’s most ancient fears is that they’ll get encircled and strangled by opposing powers. So we should play upon this fear by doing just that. It’s not that Russians are paranoid, it’s a legitimate fear. Because it works. See history 1945-1991. By the way the Russians are also paranoid.

europe map

What encirclement? Nothing to see here. Please carry on.

– Slowly and methodically strangle the beast

The problem is not just Vlad, it’s the system he built. Garrote him tomorrow and another member of his security based oligarchy will take over. Maybe they’ll make more sense than Vlad though? Angela Merkel, a woman normally not known for doing or saying anything more exciting than converting oxygen to carbon dioxide, has openly questioned whether Putin is “in touch with reality”.

So maybe when the chairman of Rosneft has Putin’s plane accidently shot down he’ll run things better. But I doubt it. The path of Russia is intrinsically tied to the fact that nobody would choose to live under such a system if given the choice. China, take notice. Sooner or later the Russian’s cheering Vlad mastery are going to realize they didn’t think about the future.

It is this fact, and Vlad’s recent actions to destroy such a bright prospect, that pushed Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia to sign trade deals with the EU. Given the choice between these two systems, these two outcomes, any reasonable person is going to back the EU, freedom, democracy, and capitalism over Putin’s lunacy.

1) Frack the shit out of Europe

Sorry environmentalists, but you’re wrong on this one. Your policies currently make it cheaper to burn German brown coal than build a wind farm. So let’s all agree to replace brown coal with natural gas, decease carbon emissions, fuel a new energy boom in Europe, and drive the natural gas spot price so low Vlad will need to sell Matryoshka by the roadside to fund his next invasion.

2) Let American gas flood the planet

See bullet (1). And don’t worry about unconstrained American LNG exports driving up American prices to the point that this is unviable. Trust me, look at an energy map, America has enough.

3) Feed the green energy psychosis

Whether the save the planet crowd admits it or not, green energy and carbon reduction is going to cause an awful lot of economic pain. But for whatever reason, here’s a sacrifice the average European citizen is willing to accept. So let’s build off that. Every weirdo Cornish tidal energy farm or unwise cloudy Black Forest solar panel is one more chance to take cash out of Vlad’s pocket.

4) Make Russia’s neighbors Europe’s economic best buddies

Remember, nothing major. Don’t offer these folks NATO or EU membership. But as with the most recent trade deal, make it as easy as possible for the likes of Ukraine to do business with Europe. Increase the cultural and economic ties to the point that their ultimate union is a fact, real if not political. Grow the economy, earn cash, and use it to fuel freedom.

Ukraine and Georgia are never going to get their lands back via violence. Ultimate victory lies in embarrassing Putin and his deranged system by the growing the economic disparity between Kiev and Sevastopol. To the point where an ethnic Russian militiaman in Crimea is going to one day look around at the wasteland he enabled, see Kiev on the television, shake his head, and mutter, “Fuck.”

5) Don’t forget who we are

See bullet (4). The only weapon Europe has that Putin does not is ideas. We’ve written about this before. In fifty years do you want to live in Warsaw or Volgograd? If you said Volgograd, you deserve what you get. The West has it flaws, we all do, but it still represents a brighter aspect of our overall human experience than the madness peddled by Vlad before breakfast.

Clearly, French built amphibious ships based in Crimea are not free Europe’s finest moment. Nor is British hesitancy to sanction Russian oligarchs that ultimately buttress the entire London property market. But none of us is perfect. And in the end, the West still has more to offer a human life. Doing nothing cannot be an option. However little is actually done, the West must always have the courage to stand against this. Never to give in or forget what it is, the ideas that it represents.

We don’t write this to get giddy about Russia’s impending doom. We just desire the ultimate destruction of Vlad’s system. If the Russian people have a free future awaiting them, we welcome it. Will it ever happen? I have no idea, but in the meantime they represent the other side. The side that humanity must defeat in order to prosper.

Revenge is a dish best served frequently. Evil’s been on a hell of a streak lately. Time to punch back.

ukraine-eu-trade-deal

A more devastating blow to Uncle Vladimir than all other European & Ukrainian actions combined.

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Do my charged internal sub-atomic particles count?

So apparently uncharged electronic devices are now as dangerous to modern air travel as a man-portable flamethrower? When did this happen? People have been carrying charged and uncharged devices onto aircraft for like fucking six decades. How is this now worthy of wasting ten more minutes in the security checkpoint?

So I’m just going to assume that if my personal molecules are somehow uncharged, that they’ll still let me board the aircraft. But I think, I guess, that this isn’t an issue because if my atoms were uncharged, that means I’m a bleached skeleton, right? I think?

You know I don’t claim to be the reincarnation of Sun Tzu, but I’m pretty sure nowhere in sound military strategy is it a good idea to broadcast to the enemy what you know about their weapon’s capabilities. I bet there’s a Yemeni informant who just got beheaded because they made him as the only guy able to pass this data to the CIA and he got burned. Gee, thanks USA government, that’ll really encourage folks to cash in on your magnanimous protection of trusted sources.

So in addition to not being Sun Tzu II, I’m also not an engineer. But I’m just going to go ahead and determine that they think if the device cannot turn on it’s because the device is a Trojan horse weapon with dynamite inside instead of your hipster iOS software. To which my question is if that’s true, then what’s all that explosive detection stuff for?

We’ve been led to believe that for over a decade our government masters/protectors can glean the presence of explosives from the inside of your shampoo bottle which you jammed all the way inside your running sneaker and then topped with your rolled sock.

This level of precision is why we subject seven year old girls to internal cavity searches, right? And now they’re admitting that the best they can do to detect an active explosive is if the damn thing doesn’t turn on? That otherwise somebody could take an explosive holding laptop right on by security? Really? That’s the best we’ve got? So does that mean that for the last decade all the explosive detecting gear was just a bunch of smoke and mirrors?

Which brings us to my next point. Is all of this security fetish shit just a bunch of smoke and mirrors? We’ve previously blogged about the lunacy of both sides picking the airways as a battleground, but this is just ridiculous. It’s going to reach the point where in order to check onboard an international flight they’ll require a sample of your blood and stool. But anybody can walk onto just about any high-speed train on the planet with the aforementioned flamethrower in a backpack and nobody’s going to bat an eye until the screaming starts.

Do you feel safe flying? Gee I sure hope so, after all the billions spent and time wasted. Would you feel any less safe if they didn’t read your DNA before you boarded? I bet you wouldn’t know the difference. Would the bad guys get one plane eventually? Sure, but that’s probably going to happen anyways, see previously mentioned explosive detection incompetence.

And in any case you’re about seventy times more likely to check out in a car accident. I recommend you accept that and get over it. In the meantime, we’re probably putting more resources into the TSA than on curing cancer.

[unintelligible mumbling] What? [unintelligible mumbling] Yeah, Wednesday night. Why? [unintelligible mumbling] Well, yeah, I guess I’ll make sure it’s charged before I leave. I need to make sure I’m not late getting aboard. I’m leaving so late, that there isn’t another flight later as a backup. [unintelligible snickering] So, okay, look, … [throws chair]

tsa-

This humble salaried bureaucrat hopes that terrorism lives forever

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al-Baghdadi administration unlikely to regain original spark

TAPN

“In the beginning we had hopes, not necessarily bright ones, but something, something could happen. We prayed for it,” sighs a Mosul grandmother who’s name she requested we not publish. “Now there is only the sins of the past, again, we have given up.” She gazes out at the mostly deserted streets from her dilapidated house. Her eyes vacant.

Over three years into his first term as the Prophet’s Successor, the administration of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi finds itself on the ropes. Besieged by internal strife and still embroiled in two wars, al-Baghdadi seems unable to cope with a endless litany of troubles. This last month poll numbers showed the Sultan’s ratings at near 30%, the worst for any first term Caliph since Mustafa III.

Even his closest supporters ponder if his Blessed Reign as Caliph has lost all momentum for good. “There’s a sense there’s a complete lack of direction. Nobody’s driving change anymore,” states an ISIS party insider.

Only this week the administration was rocked by yet another scandal, this time a sexual assault allegation against an ISIS party official at a conference in Ramadi. Councilor al-Rousani has vehemently denied the charges laid against him in Sharia Court on Tuesday. He has admitted to the illicit sexual contact but described it as “completely consensual”.   al-Rousani is married.

al-Baghdadi’s spokesmen have struggled to balance party factions, mainly the pro-rape and hardcore Sharia elements, who have lined up against one another. Said his chief mouthpiece, “The Caliph has requested that al-Rousani take a leave of absence. He asks for the Prophet’s Guidance upon the investigation and demands that all withhold judgment until the facts are known.”

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“We want the old days back…”

The sense of aimlessness is clear on the Tikrit front. Bogged down in the third year of stalemate the Caliphate Regiments are becoming less enthusiastic in fighting a war they view as increasingly separated from the daily lives of their loved ones. Particularly given the incessant economic turmoil back home.

“Those dirty bastards in Mosul, they have no idea what this is like,” sneered one private, to the wide agreement of his colleagues. “Indeed, they’re just a bunch of bandits,” cried another.

The sense that even the Sultan’s closest military advisors are detached from the sufferings of the Ruled were apparent in Sharia Court this week as High Councilor Colonel bin-Fatad was formally charged with bribery in the now infamous Prophet’s Wind attack helicopter procurement fiasco.

bin-Fatad pleaded not guilty to the charges that he aggressively sought and received bribes from French defense contractor EADS. Although bin-Fatad strenuously denies the accusations, it is said various low ranking officers have cut deals with the Prophet’s Prosecutor and will testify against him.

And in France this week President Hollande is said to believe charges are required against EADS employees who, “clearly violated our laws that when we sell French kit to evil, that it should be above board at all times”. The Sultan is thought to have told his advisors that at the very least, bin-Fatad needed to “lose his cock”.

That millions may have found their way into pockets angers those at the front. “We’re fighting Iran every day and they just take all our cash before we see one dinar,” griped a grizzled first sergeant.

“In the old days we had victories, now we just have battles that never end. And how can we win with this, just look at this,” the first sergeant kicked a dusted, green Huawei radio, “this thing is so complicated and nonfunctional that I have to send two corporals to schools just to get this thing to turn on. But nobody has any school quotas, so the thing just sits here and doesn’t work. We generally use it to hold down the daily orders book from the wind.”

The sergeant shakes his head in confusion, “Once upon a time I had only my Land Rover, my Kalashnikov, and my faith. And we won victory after victory. We ran circles around the apostates. Now I can’t even lead a single patrol without writing three drafts of a seven paragraph order and run it up five officers to get to the Company Commander. It’s like writing how you know you’ll lose. We want the old days back.”

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“Not the dictator we need…”

In Raqqah, near the ever-present western front, the dissatisfaction was widely described by local students at a “values talking shop”. Sipping tea at sunset they described a future they viewed as without hope, without job prospects, and while trapped in a country that did not honor their dreams.

“When the Caliph assumed power we thought things were different, that he’d bring about Paradise here on this life,” said one university senior majoring in philosophy. “But now all we see is the same games, the same corruption. We want change.”

And yet change has been consistently not forthcoming, both in the wars, and with the al-Baghdadi agenda. Still alongside dictators al-Assad and al-Maliki, supporters questioned whether the three were inherently tied to each other’s static fates.

Said the ISIS party insider, “al-Baghdadi doesn’t want to stay equal with the two of them, but he can’t escape their grasp. Yet since he’s the Caliph, people are always expecting him to deliver, to overcome the two of them. But al-Assad and al-Maliki have Iran and the Sultan only has the Will of the Prophet. What can you do?”

The students in Raqqah were harsher, “He’s not the dictator we need. If this Prophet’s Successor can’t fulfill our destiny then it’s time to find somebody who can.” Although the values group was unsure how they would conduct such a power transfer given the al-Baghdadi administration’s propensity to liquidate its most fervent enemies in a sea of brutality that makes Stalin’s ghost flinch.

3

“You can’t hide behind a title…”

This next week promises two greater challenges that might perhaps truly test what remains of al-Baghdadi’s authority. On Wednesday, the Prophet’s Court provides its final ruling on the much touted water usage rights on the Tigris. On Friday, the High Council reaches its deadline to pass the next fiscal year’s expenditures. Either event might prove fatal to the administration’s future.

“For three years the Caliph has promised economic prosperity and now he’s hiding behind the courts,” shouted al-Qaeda opposition party official al-Nir. “If the Sultan won’t stand up even to ensure all our people have clean drinking water then what’s the Caliphate for except to keep the rich, rich?”

Caliphate watchers were nearly unanimous in their belief that the High Council would not pass its budget on time due to the overwhelming disagreement over line-item additions inputted by Fallujah representatives in back room dealing last week. International financial institutions warned that yet more financial hurdles would only weaken the Caliphate’s already damaged credit rating.

“Increasingly the markets are concerned that the Sultanate can’t even pay its bills, let alone grow the economy consistently,” commented one BNP Paribas manager, “I think what we’ll ultimately see is the financial community lose faith and perhaps a downgrade of the bond rating to near junk”.

“You can’t hide behind a title,” emphasized al-Nir, “if the Sultan can’t deliver on his promises maybe it’s time to go.” And go he might. In private al-Baghdadi is said to frequently express exasperation with the challenges of office and frustration at the inability of most of his subordinates to produce results. He is said to frequently seek “detachment” in the peace of the desert where he states his intention is to “go fuck off”.

He is said to actively consider retirement from time-to-time but worries of the consequences. “He thinks if a new Caliph appears that he’ll get beheaded along with his whole family,” stated the ISIS party insider, “in reality he’s probably right. But that leaves the rest of us to endure his malaise.”

Back in Mosul the concept of a brutal bloodthirsty purge of leadership has no appeal for the grandmother. “I just want there to be peace, and maybe a little money to go around. But I don’t see it, not from al-Baghdadi or the opposition. We’ve lost faith in them all.”

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It’s time for a new cause, and the applicable follow-up

We’re rather not surprised, or happy, that we called this from the start:

http://www.vox.com/2014/6/24/5837836/forgetting-nigerias-girls

So now that this pet cause has failed, perhaps we can get more support for our solution/pet cause, which was strangely not adopted by the world establishment: 

https://arcturusproject.wordpress.com/2014/05/12/want-to-keep-schoolgirls-safe-shoot-them-in-the-head/

bringbackourgirlstrend

Not an effective means to bring about change

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Failure due to lack of vision is not solved by panicked action

In Revenge of the Jedi, as the Emperor is instructing Luke in the arts of religious politics, he informs Luke that he’ll, “pay the price for your lack of vision”. And then proceeds to shock his body with computer generated electricity. Of course at that point, the Emperor had about three minutes to live. So it would appear he was the guy without vision. And just as the arrogant Emperor believed he owned everything, but actually had no vision, so it goes for the current and previous emperors of America.

Since 2003 every single American leader in major power has had a substantial lack of foresight. Please note the equal application of failure from Bush, Obama, and all their underlings. As we’ve discussed, each side is attempting to now blame the other in order to sharpen their political swords. What does this matter to the rest of the world? If America has failed, then America has failed. A refugee in Mosul does not care about the midterm elections.

Both presidents botched this war. Place blame however you want. It’s irrelevant right now. It’s just noise for the media. But what I find amusing is the various actions proposed to solve the problem at hand. The two sides that bungled their actions and created this mess are now racing toward the funeral with their various solutions. Hey assholes, you all screwed this up in the first place. Why should anybody listen to your arrogant wisdom on how you’ll sweep up your own mess?

Here is what each side would say if they were honest with themselves, the people, the planet, and reality:

– Bush, Supporters, Etc

“We’re sorry. We tried to fight war on the cheap and fast. We had no concept of history, time, and reality. Once we discovered how large the task was, we lied to the world about our power, capability, and will. Instead of mobilizing the entire might of America to save Iraq after we broke it, we asked our citizens to go shopping while 0.6% of the population carried the burden of war for over a decade. We treated them like heroes even though we were asking them to fight the war alone because we were too cowardly to tell the rest of the country what it would take to win. We failed to explain to our nation that in order to succeed, we’d have to remain in Iraq for fifty years and spend trillions. We demanded the other side continue our war even as we still were intellectually dishonest with America about just what it would entail to win said war. When the other side actually ended the war, we rightly predicted disaster, but generally kept our mouths shut because we didn’t want to alienate an electorate that fully supported an end to American participation. Now that Iraq as collapsed, for political purposes we’re going to spin it as a disaster the other side created even though no American actually cares or wants anything to do with Iraq anymore.”

– Obama, Supporters, Etc

“We’re sorry. Most of us, except for our current leader, supported this war from the start because we knew we’d win. And America loves winners. So we wanted to be winners too. But then we realized we were losing. And we discovered, like our counterparts, just how hard this was going to be. So in a wind of cynicism and hypocrisy we changed our minds and began to lie and obfuscate how much we were in favor of this fight at the beginning. When we got power, we had no choice but to end the war because we’d won power opposing its continuance and because our people asked for it. We knew we’d take the risk of breaking Iraq by leaving, but we didn’t care. We just needed to end the war. And we tried to spin it as a victory for our own political advantage even though any rational person would know it wasn’t actual victory. We gave America what it wanted, and now America is shouting at us because we lost Iraq. Well, what did you expect? We knew what we were doing when we ended it. This is what happens. Go back to shopping and shut your mouths while we attempt to blame the folks who started this war to cover ourselves. Even though we know we ended it wrong, we don’t care. And you know what, in their hearts, neither does any American.”

So now these gangs of idiots are going to solve this somehow. With what? Airstrikes, Maliki’s removal, support from Iran, space-based-death-rays? Whatever. Any solution that either side has offered this last week will fail. Because they all contain a lack of vision. You cannot fix Iraq with panicked short term actions. That kind of next sound bite leadership is what created this disaster in the first place.

Both sides are led by losers who gooned this up. The American citizen does not actually care about Iraq because they were never asked to invest anything in its future. Does that mean the best answer is to do nothing? Well, no. Very little bad can come from American jets sending the incinerated remains of ISIS members into the stratosphere. And talking to Iran, who’s the real power in Iraq right now, is probably not the worst of ideas since they’re the only country in it to win it. 

But I guess my point here is don’t expect results. The guys who created this mess aren’t going to fix it with short term choices. Iraq was a basketcase before 2003, it still is now, and it’ll be so ten years from now. Accept it, calm down, and make the best of this awful situation. But don’t demand real answers. Not from these leaders. Not from either side.

In the end this is all a growing trend for the world to observe. America, under the leadership of either half of the political spectrum, with this current citizenry, is no longer a reliable power. Military and economic might is nothing if it’s not backed by a cohesive strategy, principled leadership, a distinct vision, and a population with the will to take long term action. Lots of people on the planet will favor this new world order and be glad that America’s out of effective play. But I suspect if you live in Donetsk, Tbilisi, Riga, Manila, Osaka, Tunis, or Mosul, that you don’t. Whether you admit it or not.

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Two leaders unfit for war

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This is what it looks like when history overcomes the actions of man

Sometimes what you do just doesn’t matter. Sometimes what whole countries do, or even the entire planet does, just doesn’t matter. Folks occasionally refer to this as the ‘great wheel’. History takes over or chaos reigns.

Because when people aren’t serious, lunacy gets to run wild. By any definition, Maliki, America, the UN, your next door neighbor, you, me, were not serious about Iraq. And so history got to work its magic. Enjoy it, we all own it.

At first I considered the possibility that Maliki was allowing ISIS to seize significant portions of Iraq so he could effectively divest himself of the majority Sunni lands. Then he could keep Baghdad, the majority Shiite lands, and build his own Shiite super state. What does he need the northwest for anyways? There’s hardly any oil, a bunch of Sunnis who he hates live there, and so on.

Yet today I’m confronted with the reality that Maliki isn’t playing a game. He’s actually completely powerless. The withdrawal or desertion of Iraqi forces is not part of a broader devious plan. They’re actually losing. Maliki does not have a functioning army under his command. How do I know this? Because the Kurds took Kirkuk today and didn’t fire a shot.

If you know anything about Iraq the last few years, it’s that if Iraq was going to descend into civil war, it was to be over Kirkuk. There’s oil there. And the autonomous Kurds and Baghdad were literally ready to trade tank rounds over it. One of the top three reasons everybody thought the Americans needed to stay was to ensure the Kurds and Shiites didn’t kill each other over Kirkuk. The Americans were the neutral party.

So if Maliki isn’t able to hold Kirkuk, he’s truly in trouble. Thus, observe one of history’s great lessons, once again on display. When you turn a reasonable standing army into a tribal militia where merit and training are replaced by religion and politics? Don’t be surprised when a battalion runs away from sixteen guys in four pickup trucks.

So what’s going to happen? ISIS isn’t going to seriously tangle with the Kurds because their forces are fairly good. Maliki is likely to hold Baghdad because ISIS just doesn’t have the firepower or manpower to overcome even the seriously degraded Iraqi Army. But the Shiites aren’t going to be able to retake the northwest, even if they wanted to.

So the Kurds will get their fully autonomous state in the north, with Kirkuk. Maliki will get his Shiite state in the southeast with Baghdad. And the Sunnis will get the northwest and be left to rot, under ISIS lunatics or anybody else who has enough guns to hold it.

So finally, after all these years, after all the war and death, after all the back room diplomacy, Iraq is finally divided into three parts.

In other words, every single action post 2003 is now a failure.

Who’s to blame? Well, I’ll probably write about that later. But don’t listen to idiots who are already telling you they had it figured out back in 2003 or 2005 or 2009 or 2011. It did not have to end this way even after it started or was changed. Folks who have an axe to grind are going to use this to push their politics, one side or the other. But in general, the answer for who’s to blame is:

Everybody

Everybody had a hand in this. So for right now, who cares? The question currently on offer is what’s to be done about this? I could answer that, but for right now, who cares? Why? Because the real answer is that the world’s going to do nothing. Nothing. Everybody’s going to watch Iraq burn. So since we’re going to do nothing, why even talk options. Let’s just sit back and observe the great wheel doing its thing. Enjoy it, the whole world owns it.

iraq

This man’s face and this scene have occurred in Iraq seventeen times since the dawn of man

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Nobody is capable of fixing this mess

We can get overly focused on the man in charge.  Yes, they’re the face of an organization and the one calling the shots.  But many times, a department’s performance is beyond the capabilities and judgment of one man.

The focus now shifts to who the new boss will be.  Well, I’ve got news for you folks, it’s irrelevant.  Whoever’s next, the result is the same.  If Eric Shinseki can’t fix the VA, nobody can.  You will never find a more experienced, mature leader guided by such integrity.  The problem isn’t Shinseki, the problem is the VA.

Consider some numbers that illustrate the level of the problem:

VA

$153B for 312K employees caring for 9M patients

National Health Service

$183B for 1.7M employees caring for 63M patients

Now somebody smarter than I could probably explain why this comparison is not equivalent.  There’s probably some concept I’m missing.  But at the base level these numbers still tell the core story.  The VA is a bloated dysfunctional bureaucracy.

Just changing the person at the top won’t alter things.  Pumping more money into the budget won’t either.  Only two things can correct this situation:

a)  Completely change the VA’s organization, mandate, budget into something different

b)  Completely change the way government employees are managed

In any reasonable world the VA is a bankrupt entity that should have died and been rebuilt into something better decades ago.  But this is government and government can’t go bankrupt.  Yet without creative destruction this mess will just go on.  Kill it and then rebuild it.

Or you have to start treating government employees differently.  The folks who have ruined the VA lack integrity, efficiency, and value because they exist in a system that does not reward talent, merit, and performance.  That so many senior VA officials have turned out as corrupt, incompetent fools should not surprise anybody.  You get the people your organization generates.

Will Congress and the public even consider options (a) and (b)?  Probably not.  They’re too hard and controversial.  So don’t be surprised in a decade when everything’s the same.

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This man has to go back to the VA next month for his checkup

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Things are returning to normal, but they shouldn’t

Nobody wants to live in a state of perpetual crisis; to get pounded every single day in the head with awful reality.  So Uncle Vlad has sounded rather charitable lately.  And so do his Western counterparts.  Now that the drama’s subsided, everybody wants to get back to normal.  Vlad’s backed Ukrainian elections, pulled some troops away, and didn’t resort to screaming like the lunatic he is when Prince Charles called him exactly what he is.

By the way, you have to applaud Charles for speaking the truth and the not backing down.  When you see how the three big men of British politics responded, you affirm quite a lot of who they really are:

Cameron:  The Prince… “…everyone is entitled to their private opinions.”

Clegg:  The Prince… “…free to express himself.”

Miliband:  The Prince… “…has got a point.”

Which is to confirm that Cameron remains the hack-fraud everybody thinks he is; Clegg is still a vacuum-sealed-lifeform-in-a-suit; and Miliband, for all his many, many faults is still a democrat at heart and has the admirable quality of telling everybody what he really thinks.  Even if telling everybody what he thinks usually gets him in trouble.

But it’s okay you tart Brits.  You’re not the only ones led by a walking corpse.  Monsieur Hollande still can’t bring himself to not sell amphibious assault ships to Vladimir.  Apparently because he says that once you sign contracts, they are sacred.  Oh, I get it.  So Vlad can violate international law and multiple signed treaties but the French will be damned if they break a single contract.  This is to say that Vlad could invade Poland and burn Warsaw to the ground.  But as long as it doesn’t lead to the loss of five-hundred union jobs in Saint-Nazaire, Hollande would respond, “Meh, [French shrug] what can you do?”

Vlad is not happy with Charles.  For once he almost seems to whine just a little.  He doesn’t like being compared to one of history’s greatest monsters.  But they’re essentially the same kind of guy.  Except that Vlad has a much lower body count and is in the end rather less successful in achieving his goals up front.  But Charles is right and both Vlad and Hitler see Europe the same way.  Unfortunately for us all, there’s no Churchill or de Gaulle waiting in the wings to turn things around.  And so this will go on and on.

Everybody in our blessed Western establishment governments and businesses want things to go back to normal.  The West needs Russia for gas, for oil, for cash, on Syria, Iran, Afghanistan transport links, nuclear proliferation, and about sixteen other major actions.  But to push Ukraine to the side and get back to normal in the pursuit of these goals misses the gravity of the damage Putin has recently wrought to the West and the world order it claims to represent.  This one you can’t let slide.

In two weeks Vlad shows up to the Normandy commemorations of 06 June.  Oh, yeah, if you didn’t know, Hollande has not withdrawn the invitation.  So in two weeks all the “leaders” of the West are going to stand side-by-side with a leader who’s just recently gone against everything those who fought at Normandy stood for.

They’re going to let him get away with it because they think they need him.  They require his Russia so they can get back to normal.  They might as well kidnap five Ukrainians off the street, take them to Sword Beach, and urinate on them atop an old Nazi coastal gun box.  And while they’re at it, walk over to the cemetery and spit on the graves of the fallen.  It’s the same as standing next to Putin after what’s happened.  It’s a disgrace.

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“Well Vlad, you have to know, you’re a filthy Hitler shit.”

“Yeah, and what are you going to do about it, pig?!”

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Trust the gun wielding goon with your freedom, what could go wrong?

I have this idea of a bunch of drunk cavemen leaders discussing whether or not to establish an army to liquidate the residents of a neighboring cave. They vote to do it. Then the next morning the leaders all wake up to find the general they elected to command their new cave army has launched a coup. He beheads them all and then doesn’t attack the neighboring cave after all.

Who needs an army anyways? Well, I guess Ukraine, probably Vietnam, and all those Baltic states who will soon become Russian provinces while NATO discusses what minor tool of Putin to sanction. But mostly, I think the planet’s countries don’t need armies. Throughout history, most armies only battle their own people. I’m certain we’ve got more coups than wars on the books.

Why has Thailand needed an army since 1932? They’ve had twelve coups. But the only times it was really needed against say Imperial Japan or to hedge Communist Vietnam, they never really fought. So by my count the only battle the Thai army has ever truly engaged in was against its own people. Maybe the Thai should only have cops instead. It’d be safer that way.

But it was rather comical to see the fools at the US State Department twist their words in a manner befitting a hack of Putin. As they walked around whether or not the army’s actions earlier this week amounted to a coup. I guess thousands of guys on the city streets with machine-guns is a training exercise?

Whatever. Don’t be too hard on them. They’re interested in preserving US influence in Thailand, regardless of who’s in charge. We don’t possess a US State Department interested in supporting US values. That’s weak ass stuff. Imposing your values across the world by any means is for jerks like Putin who actually care about things.

But fortunately those seeking clarity of the situation when clarity already existed were nicely assisted by history’s latest caveman asshole: General Prayuth Chan-ocha, Self-Appointed Dictator & Overlord of the Thai People. When in doubt, as always, trust the guy who’s serious enough to put guns on the street.

But it’s okay, the US is on the case. Secretary Kerry has warned of “negative implications for the U.S.-Thai relationship”. Ah, I see. I once again refer Secretary Kerry to his outstanding performance with the Ukraine crisis and remind him that people generally look at what you’ve done to determine whether you’re a serious man. If I was the good general, would take any threat Kerry offers seriously?

One Shirt, Two Shirt, Red Shirt, Yellow Shirt, whatever. Both sides are at fault in why Thai governance has been a basket case for a decade. These guys make Africa’s best kleptocrats look like freaking masters of the human race. Hey, at least Mugabe can keep things somewhat moving, even if he’s still having folks beat in back alleys. I’m pretty sure Mugabe’s got less automatic weapons on the streets of Harare today than Bangkok does.

But you know who’s not going to improve Thailand’s situation? The army. So whatever their motives, they’ve now further sent their country into the drink. The good general says he’s there to “return peace and order to the country as soon as possible”. They all say that. Some of them might even mean it. Maybe the general actually means it? But even if he does, he clearly doesn’t know anything about history. If you know history, you can already call how well this one’s going to work out. Bet money on it.

normal street corner

Well, at least the guy on the right isn’t laying a pool of blood; I guess that’s something; I guess